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SBIR/STTR TRL Pipeline

Created: 2026-04-05 (session 12)

Summary

1,271 SBIR/STTR Completed projects at TRL 6 — with a 3:1 cliff at TRL 6→7 that persists identically at TRL 7→8. The pipeline's natural exit is TRL 5-6 (standard Phase II), not TRL 7+. Power technology (TX03) has the worst advancement beyond TRL 6; software/computing (TX11) has the best. TX02 (comms) almost always advances once it reaches TRL 6.

TRL Distribution (Completed SBIR/STTR Projects)

TRL Count Ratio to prior level
5 1,452 —
6 1,271 87.5% (gradual)
7 397 31.2% (major cliff)
8 128 32.2% (same cliff, no recovery)

Query used: portfolio_aggregate(group_by="trlCurrent", filter={"program": "SBIR/STTR", "status": "Completed", "trlCurrent": N}) for N in {5,6,7,8}.
Snapshot date: 2026-04-04.
Confidence: confirmed (aggregate counts)

The TRL 5→6 transition is gradual — both are natural Phase II endpoints. The TRL 6→7 cliff is structural, not technological: Phase II SBIR contracts target TRL 6 as their endpoint; advancement to TRL 7+ requires Phase III or follow-on agency investment. The 3:1 ratio repeats at TRL 7→8 for the same reason. This is consistent with the known SBIR program structure, not a NASA-specific anomaly.

Total TRL 5-8 completions: ~3,248 projects. Roughly 84% exit at TRL 5-6; ~16% reach TRL 7+.

TX Area Advancement Rates (TRL 6→7, SBIR/STTR Completed)

TX Area TRL 6 TRL 7 Advancement Rate
TX02 (Communications/Avionics) 12 10 83% (highest)
TX13 (Ground/Test/Launch/Ops) 29 17 59%
TX11 (Software/Computing) 83 48 58%
TX15 (Aeronautics) 75 35 47%
TX09 (Entry/Descent/Landing) 51 11 22%
TX08 (Sensors/Instruments) 229 74 32%
TX06 (Human Health/Life Support) 127 36 28%
TX01 (Propulsion) 156 41 26%
TX05 (Communications Systems) 67 19 28%
TX04 (Robotics/Autonomous) 54 14 26%
TX03 (Power) 79 19 24%
TX12 (Materials/Structures) 117 26 22%
TX07 (Manufacturing) 39 7 18% (worst)

Counter-query: Aggregate at TRL 8 used to verify continuation of pattern.
Confidence: suggestive (TX02 sample too small at 12 to be reliable; others have larger samples)

TX Advancement Rates (TRL 6→8, for "big picture" filter)

TX Area TRL 6 TRL 8 6→8 Rate
TX15 (Aeronautics) 75 13 17%
TX11 (Software/Computing) 83 11 13%
TX13 (Ground/Test/Launch) 29 9 31% (spike — see note)
TX06 (Human Health) 127 13 10%
TX08 (Sensors) 229 24 10%
TX01 (Propulsion) 156 13 8%
TX12 (Materials) 117 8 7%
TX03 (Power) 79 3 3.8% (worst)
TX07 (Manufacturing) 39 1 2.6% (worst)

TX13 spike at TRL 8: Ground/test/launch systems reaching TRL 8 likely include test facility hardware that's inherently testable on the ground, explaining the relatively high rate.

Key Findings

1. TX03 Power — The Worst Advancement Record

Only 3 of 79 TRL-6-completing power projects reach TRL 8 (3.8%). Power technology requires a flight demonstration or mission integration to advance beyond TRL 7, and SBIR/STTR rarely supplies that. This reinforces the "power desert" finding from outer-planet-access.md — novel power technologies routinely stall at TRL 4-6, unable to find mission pulls.

2. TX11 Software — Best Advancement, AI/ML Exception

TX11 advances from TRL 6→7 at 58%, but this masks a bifurcation: - Non-AI/ML software (navigation, MBSE, UAS autonomy, space weather): advances normally - AI/ML specifically: 0% representation at TRL 7 despite being ~35% of TRL 5-6 cohort

See tx11-software-computing.md for the full AI/ML valley of death analysis.

3. TX02 Communications — Near-Perfect Advancement (with caveat)

10 of 12 TRL-6 comms projects advance to TRL 7 (83%). However, the sample is only 12 projects — too small to generalize. The pattern may reflect that comms hardware can be ground-tested to TRL 7 more easily than other hardware, or selection effects (only very strong Phase II comms projects get to TRL 6).

4. TX15 Aeronautics — Systematically Underrepresented

TX15 (Aeronautics) is 5.9% of TRL 6 but grows to 8.8% at TRL 7 and 10.2% at TRL 8. Aeronautics projects advance well once they reach TRL 6, likely because flight testing (real aircraft) is more accessible than spaceflight demonstrations. This is the opposite of TX03 (power), which needs a space mission to advance.

5. The Standard Phase II Exit: TRL 5-6

The 1452/1271 bimodal cluster at TRL 5-6 represents the standard Phase II output. Projects with trlEnd=6 are not failures — they delivered what Phase II was designed to produce. The 397 at TRL 7+ are the successful Phase III transitions.

Interpretation Notes

These counts measure projects that completed at each TRL level, not transitions between TRL levels. A project ending at TRL 7 doesn't mean it passed through TRL 5 and 6 first — though for SBIR/STTR contracts, this is typically true given program structure. This distinction matters: a high TRL-7 count could mean either many projects advanced from 6 to 7, or some projects started at TRL 7 scope. The pattern is consistent with the former.