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Outcome Tracking

Established: 2026-04-05 | Updated: 2026-04-06 (SBIR pipeline counts; third undercount mechanism) | Data snapshot: 2026-04-04

Summary

TechPort tracks project outcomes through technologyOutcomes — a lineage field that records what happened after a project ended. Four outcome types are used: Closed_Out, Transitioned_To, Infused_To, and Advanced_From. Coverage is high for NIAC and SBIR/STTR (most completed projects have at least one outcome record). GCD has patchy coverage, especially for recently-added batch records.

Quantitative baseline (all projects, snapshot 2026-04-04): - Closed_Out: 9,885 (49.1% of all 20,152 projects) - Transitioned_To: 639 (3.2%) — updated count - Infused_To: 115 (0.57%) — updated count

Note: these counts overlap — a project can have multiple outcome records. Advanced_From was not counted but marks projects that descended from prior work.

Key structural finding (2026-04-05): Outcome path meaning varies dramatically by program. Infused_To for TDM/GCD means "technology flew on a mission." Infused_To for STRG means "research contributed to the field" — with no partner attribution. The same field label does not mean the same thing across programs.

Outcome Types

Type Meaning Typical use
Closed_Out Project completed, no explicit follow-on tracked Most SBIR Phase I, STRG grants, small NIAC Phase I
Transitioned_To Technology or team moved to a named successor (may cite project ID or org) SBIR Phase I→II, CIF→GCD, NIAC Phase I→II
Infused_To Technology was infused into a mission or operational system Mature TDM, GCD projects; indicates mission impact
Advanced_From This project advanced from a predecessor Marks SBIR Phase II, NIAC Phase II; backward link

Coverage by Program (estimated)

NIAC — Good (60% Closed_Out, 12% Transitioned_To; better than SBIR/FO but original ★★★★★ was overstated)

Full-population counts 2026-04-06, session 34.

Outcome Count % of 327
Closed_Out 194 59.3%
Transitioned_To 38 11.6%
Infused_To 5 1.5%
No outcome (est.) ~90–130 ~27–40%

Correction: The original "~95% coverage" was from a biased sample of 20 well-documented Phase II projects. The full-population count reveals ~30-40% of projects have no outcome record at all. Still the best Transitioned_To rate of any program investigated (11.6% vs SBIR's 1.8%), but not ~95%.

Typical NIAC outcome pattern: - Phase I → Closed_Out or Transitioned_To (next NASA program or DoD) - Phase II → Advanced_From (pointing to Phase I) + Transitioned_To or Infused_To - Example: Project 13744 (10m Balloon Reflector Phase II) has 3 outcomes: multiple Transitioned_To (DoD, other NASA programs) + Infused_To

Third mechanism applies to NIAC: Project 96188 (CMU Robotic Lunar Pits, TRL 4→5, Phase II) completed with outcome = Advanced_From only. No Closed_Out, no Transitioned_To. TRL-5 completion with zero terminal outcome records. The third mechanism is cross-program.

Transitioned_To partner diversity: NIAC's 38 Transitioned_To records show the widest partner range of any program — SMD, SpaceOps, GCD, DoD (×2), Google Inc. (Titan Aerial Daughtercraft), Army Corps of Engineers, Prizes/Challenges. See programs/niac.md for full analysis.

Confidence: confirmed (full-database query n=327, session 34)

SBIR/STTR — Moderate (better admin closure, weak mission impact tracking)

Updated with full-portfolio pipeline counts, 2026-04-06.

Full-database outcome counts for SBIR/STTR (n=12,272): - Closed_Out: 7,043 (57.4%) - Advanced_To (Phase I linked to Phase II): 1,861 (15.2%) - Advanced_From (Phase II back-linked to Phase I): 1,847 (15.1%) - Transitioned_To: 222 (1.8%) - Infused_To: 23 (0.19%) - Canceled: 0

The pipeline linkage (Advanced_To/From = ~1,850 pairs) captures approximately 65–75% of actual Phase I→II transitions based on NASA's publicly cited ~35–40% conversion rate applied to an estimated ~5,000–8,000 Phase I projects. The other 25–35% of transitions exist but are not linked in TechPort.

Even TRL-9 completions just get Closed_Out (confirmed: 8575 Aeroprobe FRAT Probe, TRL 8→9, outcome = Closed_Out only). This is the third outcome undercount mechanism — see below.

Project 113005 (SSSASAfRaS): Advanced_From × 2 (Phase I back-links), Transitioned_To (Embry-Riddle academia) — Phase II with formal transition.

Confidence: confirmed (full-database queries, n=12,272)

CIF (Center Innovation Fund) — Strong

CIF programs are heavily represented in Transitioned_To outcomes (many of the first 100 Transitioned_To projects come from LaRC CIF, JPL CIF, ARC CIF, etc.). CIF is designed to transition to other programs — this is reflected in the data.

Confidence: suggestive (qualitative pattern from Transitioned_To query)

GCD — Patchy (Transitioned_To count confirmed)

Transitioned_To full count confirmed 2026-04-06, session 35.

468 GCD projects. 37 have Transitioned_To records = 7.9% — third-highest per-project rate after NIAC (11.6%) and STRG (9.4%).

Confirmed Transitioned_To destinations (high-profile examples): - 16854 MEDLI2 (TRL 9) → SMD — flew on Mars 2020 - 116291 MOXIE (TRL 8) → Exploration Capabilities - 17548 Astrobee (TRL 7) → International Space Station - 17549 Robonaut 2 (TRL 8) → International Space Station - 13667 Materials Genome Initiative (TRL 6) → Space Launch System

GCD Transitioned_To destinations are mission programs — SMD, ISS, SLS, Exploration Capabilities. This reflects GCD's mandate: mid-TRL maturation feeding into operational missions. In contrast to STRG's academic-to-program linkages, GCD transitions are hardware → mission.

TRL range: 3 (Reusable Vehicle Systems Manager) to 9 (MEDLI2) — GCD achieves the highest terminal TRLs of any program in Transitioned_To set.

Older GCD projects (IDs ~4000-116000) have excellent outcome tracking. Recently-added batch records (IDs 183xxx-184xxx, updated 2026-03-23) mostly show no outcomes.

Example gap: Project 183893 (_TEST_REV A) — zero contacts, zero outcomes, zero TRL, data entry anomaly.

Confidence: confirmed for Transitioned_To count (full-database query n=37; 5-record sample verified; session 35 2026-04-06). Broader outcome coverage remains speculative for batch records.

FO (Flight Opportunities) — Near-Zero Formal Tracking

Added session 32, 2026-04-06. Full query: 364 Completed FO projects.

FO has the worst outcome tracking of any program examined: - Infused_To: 0 (0%) - Transitioned_To: 0 (0%) - Closed_Out: 18 (4.9%) - No outcome path: 346 (95.1%)

This is paradoxical because FO has 20 completed projects at TRL 8-9 — operational-level results. Made in Space 3D printing (91394, TRL 4→9), WetLab-2 (91358, TRL 5→9), Exo-brake (91382, TRL 3→8), Navigation Doppler LiDAR (91351, TRL 5→6 then CLPS) — all record as either Closed_Out or no outcome at all.

Root cause identified: FO infusion stories are encoded in description text, not outcome fields. NDL's description explicitly states "NDL is selected for a flight demonstration on the moon through Commercial Lunar Payload Services" — but technologyOutcomes = {Closed_Out: Apr 2018}. The data entry practice for FO uses the free-text description field to record downstream outcomes instead of the structured fields.

Implication: FO adds a second mechanism by which TechPort outcome data understates real impact, distinct from the SBIR Closed_Out masking finding. SBIR misclassifies commercial deployment as Closed_Out; FO simply doesn't populate outcome fields at all and puts the story in prose. Both result in formal outcome rates near zero despite real infusion impact.

Confidence: confirmed (full query n=364; NDL description-field pattern verified directly)

STRG — High Transitioned_To Rate (confirmed)

Full-database Transitioned_To count confirmed 2026-04-06, session 35.

1,102 STRG projects. 103 have Transitioned_To records = 9.4% — the second-highest per-project Transitioned_To rate of any program investigated (behind NIAC's 11.6%). This was unexpected: academic grants at TRL 2-3 transitioning at 9.4% is higher than SBIR/STTR (1.8%) by 5×.

Partner analysis (5-record sample): - SMD (Science Mission Directorate, ID 4909) — most common; academic research feeding mission needs - Other NASA Programs: Prizes, Challenges, and Crowdsourcing (ID 5311) - Other NASA Program (unnamed, no ID, "Other NASA Program or Directorate") - International/cross-agency: European Service Module (ID 2540) — partner = "Other" - OGA: USDA Agricultural Research Service (ID 4939)

The ESM and USDA links are notable: STRG research reached non-NASA programs (ESA and USDA). This likely reflects genuine downstream use of academic research, not administrative record-keeping. The SMD connection makes structural sense — STRG is funded under Catalyst/STMD but many grants address science mission technology needs.

Most STRG projects have BOTH Closed_Out AND Transitioned_To outcomes — the Transitioned_To indicates specific downstream uptake, not merely project closure.

Closed_Out count for STRG not yet queried. No-outcome estimate: unclear; see Open Threads.

Confidence: confirmed (full-database query n=1,102; sample of 5 partner records verified; session 35 2026-04-06)

What Closed_Out Means

9,885 projects have Closed_Out outcomes. At 49.1% of total, this seems low — 50.9% of projects have no Closed_Out record. Possible explanations: 1. Many projects have only Transitioned_To or Infused_To outcomes (no separate Closed_Out) 2. Some projects are "completed" in status but lack outcome records entirely (data entry gap) 3. The counts above may overlap (a project could have Closed_Out + Transitioned_To)

Hypothesis: Projects with higher-impact outcomes (transitions, infusions) may be more likely to have outcome records than quietly-closed projects. This would bias the outcome data toward visible successes. Untested.

High-Outcome Programs

Transitioned_To program breakdown

Full-database query: Per-program queries across all 10 CIF sub-programs | 2026-04-05

Program group Count of Transitioned_To % of program Notes
CIF (all 10 centers combined) 191 ~10% of 1,922 30.1% of all Transitioned_To
SBIR/STTR 222 1.8% of 12,272 confirmed full count 2026-04-06
NIAC 38 11.6% of 327 confirmed full count 2026-04-06; highest per-project rate
STRG 103 9.4% of 1,102 confirmed full count 2026-04-06 (session 35); 2nd highest rate; partners include SMD, USDA, ESM
GCD 37 7.9% of 468 confirmed full count 2026-04-06 (session 35); destinations are mission programs (ISS, SLS, SMD)

Correction (2026-04-05): Session 2 logged "64% of Transitioned_To are CIF" — this was based on the first 100 results, which happened to be CIF-front-loaded due to sort order. Actual CIF share across all 634 Transitioned_To records is 30.1%. Still a strong 3× overrepresentation vs CIF's 9.5% portfolio share, but not 64%.

CIF is explicitly designed as a center seed fund that transitions technologies to larger programs — the 30.1% share confirms this design is working. JPL CIF (28) and LaRC CIF (25) have the most Transitioned_To records; SSC CIF (14%) and KSC CIF (14%) have the highest per-project T→T rates.

See topics/cif-lineage.md for full CIF lineage analysis including center specialization and named transition destinations.

Confidence: suggestive (n=100 of 639; first page may be sorted differently than a random sample)

Infused_To program breakdown (all 110 sampled, 115 total)

Query: techport_find_projects(outcome_path="Infused_To", status=null, limit=110) | 2026-04-05

Program Count %
STRG 41 37%
SBIR/STTR 23 21%
IRAD (all centers) ~13 12%
GCD 9 8%
TDM 8 7%
NIAC 5 5%
ECI 3 3%
SCaN 5 5%
Other ~3 3%

Critical finding: STRG's 37% share of Infused_To does not have the same meaning as TDM's 7%. See section below.

Infused_To Semantic Split

Examining full project records for STRG and TDM Infused_To projects reveals they mean fundamentally different things:

TDM Infused_To (high-confidence mission infusion): - Project 4884: Mars Science Laboratory EDL Instrumentation, TRL 9, description = "MEDLI flew on MSL" - Project 11585: Green Propellant Infusion Mission, TRL 7, described an actual flight demonstration - Project 94147: Terrain Relative Navigation, TRL 7, "key part of MARS 2020 GNC system" - Project 4795: Laser Communications Relay Demonstration, TRL 7, specific satellite mission

STRG Infused_To (weak attribution): - Project 4203: Hall thruster erosion modeling, TRL 3 — outcome record: "Infused To | 2014-05-01" — no partner, no downstream project cited - Project 4331: Millimeter imaging for CMB, TRL 3 — "Infused To | 2015-07-01" — no attribution - Project 88575: 3D CT imaging of composite damage, TRL 3 — "Infused To | 2019-08-01" — no attribution - All STRG Infused_To records checked: bare date flags, no linked project or mission

TRL distribution of Infused_To (n=104 with TRL set): - TRL 3: 43 (41%) — dominated by STRG academic grants - TRL 4: 21 (20%) - TRL 5: 8 (8%) - TRL 6: 11 (11%) - TRL 7: 6 (6%) - TRL 8: 7 (7%) - TRL 9: 4 (4%) - TRL 1-2: 4 (4%)

If we restrict to projects that could plausibly represent hardware mission infusion (TRL ≥ 6), only 28/104 = 27% of Infused_To records plausibly indicate real mission-level deployment.

Use for Phase 2: For technology impact assessment, filter Infused_To by program (TDM, GCD, FO) and TRL ≥ 6. STRG Infused_To records should be treated as "research outcome tracked" not "mission infused."

Confidence: suggestive (checked ~10 full records; pattern is clear but not exhaustively verified)

Technology Lineage Example

NIAC project 13744 (10m Balloon Reflector): - Phase II (2014-2015), TRL 2 - Outcomes: Transitioned To (other NASA program), Transitioned To DoD, Infused To (2018) - This project traces back to Phase I (14325) which has 2 outcomes - The infusion in 2018 (3 years after project close) suggests technology continued maturing externally

This is the pattern to look for in Phase 2 investigation: projects where TechPort shows post-completion infusion, suggesting real mission impact.

Closed_Out Masks Real Mission Success (Critical)

Finding (2026-04-05): Confirmed flight-hardware SBIR projects record as Closed_Out, not Infused_To.

  • AASC Metal Plasma Thruster (102357): Space-launched June 2020 on NovaWurks HI-Sat platform — records as Closed_Out
  • MicroLink ELO Solar Cells (112889): Commercial product with Airbus as customer, scaling to >1 MW/year production — records as Closed_Out

The implication: the 0.57% Infused_To rate is a severe undercount of real technology deployment. The Infused_To field only fires when a program officer explicitly records the infusion. SBIR Phase III (commercial deployment) and externally-funded follow-ons leave no TechPort trace — they simply close out.

Consequence for interpretation: Do not read "Infused_To = 0.57%" as "0.57% of NASA STMD technology reached deployment." Read it as "0.57% of projects have a manually-recorded infusion link." The true deployment rate is unknown from TechPort alone.

For Phase 2 investigation: To find SBIR impact stories, read documents from high-TRL (8-9) completed projects directly — briefing charts self-report on flight status and commercial customers. See topics/sbir-sttr-high-trl.md.

outcome_path Search Filter Inconsistency

Finding (2026-04-05): The outcome_path filter in techport_find_projects does not perfectly match the technologyOutcomes array in individual project records.

Example: Project 11566 (ISRU Robotic Construction) was returned by an outcome_path=Infused_To query but has no Infused_To entry in its actual technologyOutcomes array. This is a false positive — the search index and the record are out of sync.

Implication: The total counts returned by outcome_path queries may overstate the true number of projects with that outcome. The 115 Infused_To count may include a few false positives like 11566. Verify outcome claims by reading the full project record.

Confidence: confirmed (single case verified by direct project record inspection)

Three Mechanisms of Outcome Undercount

Across three programs investigated, outcome fields consistently understate real-world technology impact. Three distinct mechanisms have been confirmed:

Mechanism 1 — Closed_Out masks commercial deployment (SBIR, confirmed 2026-04-05): Confirmed flight-hardware and commercial products record as Closed_Out, not Infused_To. AASC Metal Plasma Thruster (102357) flew in 2020; MicroLink ELO Solar Cells (112889) commercial product with Airbus — both Closed_Out. See Closed_Out Masks Real Mission Success.

Mechanism 2 — Description-layer infusion in FO (confirmed 2026-04-06): FO program records infusion stories in free-text description fields, bypassing structured outcome fields entirely. NDL (91351) description states CLPS moon flight selection; outcomes = only Closed_Out. 95.1% of FO completed projects have no structured outcome record despite real-world impact.

Mechanism 3 — TRL-9 completions receive only Closed_Out (confirmed 2026-04-06): Projects that reach TRL 8-9 do not automatically get stronger outcome records. Aeroprobe FRAT Probe (8575, TRL 8→9) outcome = only Closed_Out. Of 220 SBIR projects completed at TRL 8-9, almost none have Infused_To or Transitioned_To records. Reaching maximum TRL does not trigger structured mission-infusion tracking.

Combined effect: The nominal Infused_To rate (0.57% across all programs) should be read as "fraction of projects where a program officer manually recorded a downstream link," not as the actual technology deployment rate. All three mechanisms reduce the true rate to an unknown but much higher figure.

Surprises

  • Infused_To (115 total across all programs) is low and now understood as severely undercounted by three distinct mechanisms.
  • Advanced_From pipeline linkage (1,847/12,272 = 15.1%) is cleaner than expected — bidirectional links exist for ~1,847 Phase I→II pairs — but still leaves 25–35% of actual transitions untracked.
  • Zero Canceled records in SBIR — unlike FO (22) and other programs, SBIR appears to use Closed_Out for both normal completion and early termination.

Open Threads

  • Verify what fraction of Closed_Out projects genuinely have no subsequent use vs. those that have undocumented use
  • ~~Investigate the 222 SBIR Transitioned_To records: what programs/entities do they transition to?~~ → Closed (session 34): NASA-internal transfers dominate named targets (GCD, ARMD, SMD, SpaceOps); ~35-40% "Other" partner obscures full picture; see programs/sbir-sttr.md
  • ~~Does NIAC have a similar TRL-9 Closed_Out pattern, or does it actually use Infused_To for high-TRL results?~~ → Closed (session 34): NIAC has 13 TRL 4-5 completions (not TRL 9, but high for NIAC); third mechanism confirmed via 96188 (TRL 5, no terminal outcome); full Transitioned_To analysis added
  • Check if the outcome_path filter inconsistency (false positives) affects the SBIR Infused_To 23 count
  • Get exact "projects with zero outcome path" count for NIAC and SBIR (requires a query that isn't currently possible via portfolio_aggregate — would need outcome_path filter on aggregate, not supported)

Queries Used

  • techport_find_projects(outcome_path="Closed_Out", status="Completed", limit=1) → 9,885 total
  • techport_find_projects(outcome_path="Transitioned_To", status="Completed", limit=100) → 634 total
  • techport_find_projects(outcome_path="Infused_To", status="Completed", limit=100) → 110 total
  • Batch record retrieval for projects 113005, 13744, 8577, 15889, 106026 with fields=["all"]